Ouch! When this one came up I just shook my head.
No wonder I blew a 6-1 lead with bonehead plays like this. I'll get gammoned
here unless I hit a shot. I have no idea why I moved 18/12.
The goal
here is to maximize my shots so lets take a look at the possible
outcomes. I get a chance to hit by rolling a 2 if my opponent rolls any
two numbers higher than a 3 (not the odds I want). If i run out with a 5, I get
a double shot if my opponent rolls a 2 (looking a little better), if i
move 23/22 with the 1, I get a triple shot if my opponent rolls a 2 and
a double shot if my opponent rolls two numbers higher than a 2 (making me a
favorite to hit and save gammon).
Key points here: when things are
desperate and you are looking for a shot, take every advantage of
your opponents possible rolls. Do everything you can to increase the
likelihood of hitting a shot.
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