Now this is the kind of blunder that changes a
take to a drop. I should make the anchor on my opponents 3pt but
thought it was important to make points in my board to prepare for a shot.
White has builders ready to make points in his board. He isnt worried
about getting hit because I have no board to hold him even if I get a shot.
Keys to Remember: 1. Down by almost 60 pips it is very
unlikely that I will win this game by hitting a shot now and hoping to contain.
2. My best chance at winning is to make the anchor while I have the
chance and work from a 3-4 backgame. 3. By not making the anchor there is a
decent chance of a gammon (snowie says 20%). 4. Make the anchor and I
have a 34.8% of winning which is enough to take a double. By not making the
anchor it drops to 28% which is a drop because of the increased gammon chances.
Bottom Line: Make the anchor. He doubled, I had to
drop.
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